Center for Computational and Theoretical Biology

Ecosystem Modeling Research

In the Ecosystem Modeling research group, we pursue the understanding of the processes underlying the origin, maintenance and spatiotemporal dynamics of biodiversity across scales, from local to global, and across levels of ecological organization, from individuals, over populations, species, communities, and metacommunities up to biomes. The working group applies a range of methods, including field work, data analyses and macroecology, but focuses on mechanistic simulation modeling.

The developed mechanistic models for virtual life can be used for theory testing, improving empirical sampling designs, understanding complex process interactions, and predicting biodiversity response to drivers and environmental change scenarios.


[ submitted ] [ accepted ] [ 2017 ] [ 2016 ] [ 2015 ] [ 2014 ] [ 2013 ] [ 2012 ] [ 2011 ] [ 2010 ] [ 2008 ] [ 2006 ] [ 2003 ]

submitted [ nach oben ]

  • The geography of the Anthropocene differs between the land and the sea. Bowler, D. E.; Bjorkman, A.D.; Dornelas, M.; Myers-Smith, I.; O’Connor, M.; Navarro, L.M.; Niamir, A.; Supp, S.R.; Waldock, C.; Vellend, M.; Blowes, S.A.; Böhning-Gaese, K.; Bruelheide, H.; Elahi, R.; Antão, L.H.; Hines, J.; Isbell, F.; Jones, H.P.; Magurran, A.E.; Cabral, J.S.; Winter, M.; Bates, A.E. (submitted).
  • Integrating stochasticity into community ecology. Shoemaker, Lauren G.; Sullivan, Lauren L.; Donohue, Ian; Cabral, Juliano S.; Williams, Ryan J.; Mayfield, Margaret M.; Chase, Jonathan M.; Chu, Chengjin; Harpole, W. Stanley; Huth, Andreas; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; James, Aubrie R.M.; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; May, Felix; Muthukrishnan, Ranjan; Satterlee, Sean; Taubert, Franziska; Wang, Xugao; Wiegand, Thorsten; Yang, Qiang; Abbott, Karen C. (submitted).
  • Integrating community assembly and biodiversity reveals new dimensions of ecosystem functions: the Community Assembly and the Functioning of Ecosystems (CAFE) approach. Bannar-Martin, Katherine; Kremer, Colin; Ernest, Morgan; Leibold, Mathew; Auge, Harald; Chase, Jonathan; Declerck, Steven; Eisenhauer, Nico; Harpole, Stanley; Hillebrand, Helmut; Isbell, Forest; Koffel, Thomas; Larsen, Stefano; Narwani, Anita; Petermann, Jana; Roscher, Christiane; Sarmento Cabral, Juliano; Supp, Sarah (submitted).

accepted [ nach oben ]

  • Spatial scaling of extinction rates: theory and data reveal non-linearity, and a major upscaling and downscaling challenge. Keil, P.; Pereira, H.M.; Cabral, J.S.; Chase, J.; May, F.; Martins, I.S.; Winter, M. in Global Ecology and Biogeography (accepted).

2017 [ nach oben ]

  • Oceanic island biogeography through the lens of the general dynamic model: assessment and prospect. Borregaard, Michael K.; Amorim, Isabel R.; Borges, Paulo A. V.; Cabral, Juliano S.; Fernández-Palacios, José M.; Field, Richard; Heaney, Lawrence R.; Kreft, Holger; Matthews, Thomas J.; Olesen, Jens M.; Price, Jonathan; Rigal, Francois; Steinbauer, Manuel J.; Triantis, Konstantinos A.; Valente, Luis; Weigelt, Patrick; Whittaker, Robert J. in Biological Reviews (2017). 92 830-853.
  • Mechanistic models in macroecology and biogeography: state-of-art and prospects. Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Valente, Luis; Hartig, Florian in Ecography (2017). 40(267-280)
  • Karyotype diversity and genome size variation in Neotropical Maxillariinae orchids. Moraes, A.; de Mesquita Filho, J.; Koehler, S.; Cabral, J.; Lopes Gomes, S.; Viccini, L.; Barros, F.; Felix, L.; Guerra, M.; Forni-Martins, E. in Plant Biology (2017). 19 298-308.
  • Interactions between ecological, evolutionary, and environmental processes unveil complex dynamics of island biodiversity. Cabral, J.S.; Wiegand, K.; Kreft, H. in bioRxiv (2017). (099978)
  • Flagship umbrella species needed for conservation of overlooked biodiversity. Kalinkat, G.; Cabral, J.S.; Darwall, W.; Ficetola, F.; Fisher, J.; Giling, D.; Gosselin, M.-P.; Grossart, H.-P.; Jähnig, S.; Jeschke, J.; Knopf, K.; Larsen, S.; Onandia, G.; Pätzig, M.; Saul, W.-C.; Singer, G.; Jarić, I. in Conservation Biology (2017). 31 481-485.
  • Effects of time and isolation on plant diversity: testing island biogeography theory with an eco-evolutionary model. Cabral, J.S.; Whittaker, R.J.; Wiegand, K.; Kreft, H. in bioRxiv (2017). (100289)
  • Biodiversity dynamics on islands: explicitly accounting for causality in mechanistic models. Leidinger, Ludwig; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento in Diversity (2017). 9(30)

2016 [ nach oben ]

  • Late Quaternary climate change shapes island biodiversity. Weigelt, Patrick; Steinbauer, Manuel Jonas; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Kreft, Holger in Nature (2016). 532(7597) 99--102.
  • Functional leaf traits of vascular epiphytes: vertical trends within the forest, intra- and interspecific trait variability, and taxonomic signals. Petter, G.; Wagner, K.; Wanek, W.; Sánchez Delgado, E.J.; Zotz, G.; Cabral, J.S.; Kreft, H. in Functional Ecology (2016). 30 188-198.
  • Delineating probabilistic species pools in ecology and biogeography. Karger, D.N.; Cord, A.; Kessler, M.; Kreft, H.; Kühn, I.; Pompe, S.; Sandel, B.; Sarmento Cabral, J.; Smith, A.; Svenning, J.-C.; Tuomisto, H.; Weigelt, P.; Wesche, K. in Global Ecology and Biogeography (2016). 25 489-501.
  • Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics. Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S.; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H.; Moore, Kara A.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E. in Global Change Biology (2016). 22(8) 2651--2664.

2015 [ nach oben ]

  • Chromosomal evolution in Pleurothallidinae (Orchidaceae: Epidendroideae) with emphasis on the genus Acianthera: chromosome numbers and heterochromatin. de Oliveira, I.G.; Moraes, A.P.; de Almeida, E.M.; de Assis, F.N.M.; Cabral, J.S.; de Barros, F.; Felix, L.F. in Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society (2015). 178 102-120.
  • Branchfall as a demographic filter for epiphyte communities: Lessons from a forest floor-based sampling. Cabral, J.S.; Petter, G.; Mendieta-Leiva, G.; Wagner, K.; Zotz, G.; Kreft, H. in PloS one (2015). 10 e0128019.

2014 [ nach oben ]

  • Biogeographic, climatic and spatial drivers differentially affect α-, β- and γ-diversities on oceanic archipelagos. Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Weigelt, Patrick; Kissling, W. Daniel; Kreft, Holger in Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences (2014). 281(1784)

2013 [ nach oben ]

  • Process, correlation and parameter fitting in species distribution models: a response to Kriticos et al. 2012. Schymanski, S.J.; Dormann, C.F.; Cabral, J.; Chuine, I.; Graham, C.; Hartig, F.; Kearney, M.; Morin, X.; Römermann, C.; Schröder, B.; Singer, A. in Journal of Biogeography (2013). 40 611-613.
  • Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of South African Proteaceae. Sarmento Cabral, Juliano; Jeltsch, Florian; Thuiller, Wilfried; Higgins, Steven; Midgley, Guy F.; Rebelo, Anthony G.; Rouget, Mathieu; Schurr, Frank M. in Diversity and Distributions (2013). 19(4) 363--376.

2012 [ nach oben ]

  • Linking ecological niche, community ecology and biogeography: insights from a mechanistic niche model. Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Kreft, Holger in Journal of Biogeography (2012). 39(12) 2212--2224.
  • How to understand species’ niches and range dynamics: a demographic research agenda for biogeography. Schurr, Frank M.; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Groeneveld, Jürgen; Bykova, Olga; O’Hara, Robert B.; Hartig, Florian; Kissling, W. Daniel; Linder, H. Peter; Midgley, Guy F.; Schröder, Boris; Singer, Alexander; Zimmermann, Niklaus E. in Journal of Biogeography (2012). 39(12) 2146--2162.
  • Correlation and process in species distribution models: bridging a dichotomy. Dormann, Carsten F.; Schymanski, Stanislaus J.; Cabral, Juliano; Chuine, Isabelle; Graham, Catherine; Hartig, Florian; Kearney, Michael; Morin, Xavier; Römermann, Christine; Schröder, Boris; Singer, Alexander in Journal of Biogeography (2012). 39(12) 2119--2131.

2011 [ nach oben ]

  • Effects of Harvesting Flowers from Shrubs on the Persistence and Abundance of Wild Shrub Populations at Multiple Spatial Extents. Cabral, Juliano Sarmento; Bond, William J.; Midgley, Guy F.; Rebelo, Anthony G.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Schurr, Frank M. in Conservation Biology (2011). 25(1) 73--84.

2010 [ nach oben ]

  • The virtual ecologist approach: simulating data and observers. Zurell, Damaris; Berger, Uta; Cabral, Juliano S.; Jeltsch, Florian; Meynard, Christine N.; Münkemüller, Tamara; Nehrbass, Nana; Pagel, Jörn; Reineking, Björn; Schröder, Boris; Grimm, Volker in Oikos (2010). 119(4) 622--635.
  • Keeping the Cape Lowland archipelago afloat. Krug, C.B.; Brandl, R.; Boonzaier, C.; Cabral, J.S.; Esler, K.J.; Grant, P.B.C.; Heelemann, S.; Horn, A.; Keil, M.; Kongor, R.Y.; Meyer, J.; Nottebrock, H.; Poschlod, P.; Reisch, C.; Rösner, S.; Samways, M. J.; Schurr, F.; Vrdoljak, S. (2010). (Vol. Biodiversity in southern Africa. Volume 3: Implications for landuse and management) 151-179.
  • Estimating demographic models for the range dynamics of plant species. Cabral, Juliano S.; Schurr, Frank M. in Global Ecology and Biogeography (2010). 19(1) 85--97.

2008 [ nach oben ]

  • Molecular phylogeny of the neotropical genus Christensonella (Orchidaceae, Maxillariinae): species delimitations and insights into chromosome evolution. Koehler, S.; Cabral, J.S.; Whiten, W.M.; Williams, N.H.; Singer, R.B.; Neubig, K.M.; Guerra, M.; Souza, A.P.; Amaral, M.C.E. in Annals of Botany (2008). 102(491-507)

2006 [ nach oben ]

  • Heterochromatin diversity and its co-localization with 5S and 45S rDNA sites in chromosomes of four Maxillaria species (Orchidaceae). Cabral, Juliano S.; Felix, Leonardo P.; Guerra, Marcelo in Genetics and Molecular Biology (2006). 29 659 - 664.
  • Atlantic forest fragments in Pernambuco and Alagoas and theirs bromeliads: distribution, composition, richness and conservation. Siqueira-Filho, J.A.; Santos, A.M.M.; Leme, E.M.C.; Cabral, J.S. (2006). (Vol. Fragments of the Atlantic Forest of Northeast Brazil: Biodiversity, Conservation and the Bromeliads) 101-131.

2003 [ nach oben ]

  • Dieta de coruja murucututu (Pulsatrix perspicillata perspicillata Lathan, 1790) no Campus de UFRPE, Recife, PE. Cabral, J.S.; de Vasconcelos, S.L.; Rodrigues, M.F.; Pontual, R.M.; Mascarenhas, L.L. (2003). (Vol. Volume III) 273-274.